Abstract

Reliability of offshore platforms has become a very important issue in the Malaysian Oil and Gas Industry as, majority of the jacket platforms in Malaysian waters to date, have exceeded their design life. Reliability of a jacket platform can be assessed through reliability index and probability of failure. Conventional metocean consideration uses 100 year return period wave height associated with 100 year return period current velocity and wind speed. However, recent study shows that for Malaysian waters, the proposed metocean consideration should be 100 year return period wave height associated with 10 year return period current velocity and wind speed. Hence, this research investigated the effect of different metocean consideration, to system-based reliability of jacket platforms in Malaysian waters. Prior to that, the effect of different metocean consideration to the pushover analysis has also been studied. Besides, the significance of Pile Soil Interaction (PSI), wave direction and platform geometry were analyzed in a sensitivity study. Pushover analysis was performed on three jacket platforms representing three water regions in Malaysia to obtain Reserve Strength Ratio (RSR) as an indicator of the reliability of the jackets. Utilizing sensitivity study parameters mentioned above, seven different case studies were undertaken to study their significance on RSR. The RSR values of each case study were compared and incorporated as resistance model of reliability analysis. Besides, platform specific response model of each jacket has been generated using response surface technique which was later incorporated into the limit state function for reliability analysis. Reliability analysis using First Order Reliability Method (FORM) has been conducted in MATLAB to obtain the reliability index and probability of failure. Results from the reliability analysis were compared to analyze the effect of different metocean consideration. In this study, an updated and detailed methodology of system reliability analysis for offshore jacket platforms is presented. Relationship curves for the safety indices were generated as the outcome of this study. Probability of Failure is found to be inversely functional to RSR. The newly proposed metocean consideration eliminates the conservativeness in currently practiced metocean values. Parameters like metocean considerations and PSI greatly affect the RSR, hence affects Reliability index and Probability of Failure.

Keywords:

Metocean, pushover analysis, reserve strength ratio, structural integrity, system reliability,

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Competing interests

The authors have no competing interests.

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