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2013 (Vol. 5, Issue: 24)
Article Information:

Modeling for Growth and Forecasting of Pulse Production in Bangladesh

Niaz Md. FarhatRahman, Mohammad MijanurRahman and Md. AzizulBaten
Corresponding Author:  Md. AzizulBaten 

Key words:  ARIMA model, chickpea, field pea, forecasting, growth model, pigeon pea,
Vol. 5 , (24): 5578-5587
Submitted Accepted Published
October 12, 2012 December 06, 2012 May 30, 2013
Abstract:

The present study was carried out to estimate growth pattern and examine the best ARIMA model to efficiently forecasting pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production in Bangladesh. It appeared that the time series data for pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea were 1st order homogenous stationary. Two types of models namely Box-Jenkins type Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and deterministic type growth models, are examined to identify the best forecasting models for pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production in Bangladesh. The study revealed that the best models were ARIMA (1, 1 and 1), ARIMA (0, 1 and 0) and ARIMA (1, 1 and 3) for pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production, respectively. Among the deterministic type growth models, the cubic model is best for pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production. The analysis indicated that short-term forecasts were more efficient for ARIMA models compared to the deterministic models. The production uncertainty of pulse could be minimized if production were forecasted well and necessary steps were taken against losses. The findings of this study would be more useful for policy makers, researchers as well as producers in order to forecast future national pulse production more accurately in the short run.
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  Cite this Reference:
Niaz Md. FarhatRahman, Mohammad MijanurRahman and Md. AzizulBaten, 2013. Modeling for Growth and Forecasting of Pulse Production in Bangladesh.  Research Journal of Applied Sciences, Engineering and Technology, 5(24): 5578-5587.
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ISSN (Online):  2040-7467
ISSN (Print):   2040-7459
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