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Abstract
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Article Information:
Turkey’s Energy Demand
M. Mucuk and D. Uysal
Corresponding Author: Mehmet Mucuk
Submitted: 2009 Oct., 01
Accepted: 2009 Oct., 12
Published: |
Abstract:
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The present study aims to forecast the primary energy demand in Turkey for the period 2007-2015
using the Box-Jenkins methodology. The annual data for the period 1970-2006 provided by the Ministry of
Energy and Natural Resources were used in the study. Considering the results of unit root test, energy demand
series is stationary at first difference. Later among alternative models it is found that the most appropriate model
is ARIMA (3,1,3) for energy demand series. According to this model, estimation findings show that the energy
demand would continue its increasing trend also in the forecast period. It is expected that the primary energy
demand will reach 119.472 TOE in 2015 with an approximately 22 percent increase compared to 2006.
Therefore energy policies should be designed for increasing demand in Turkey.
Key words: Energy demand forecasting, Turkey’s energy demand, box-Jenkins methodology, primary energy demand, , ,
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Cite this Reference:
M. Mucuk and D. Uysal, . Turkey’s Energy Demand. Current Research Journal of Social Sciences, (3): Page No: 123-128.
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ISSN (Online): 2041-3246
ISSN (Print): 2041-3238 |
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