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Abstract
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Article Information:
Forecasting Cultivated Areas and Production of Maize in Nigerian using ARIMA Model
M.A. Badmus and O.S. Ariyo
Corresponding Author: Ariyo Oludare
Submitted: 2011 January, 24
Accepted: 2011 February, 23
Published: 2011 May, 25 |
Abstract:
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This study focuses on forecasting the cultivated area and production of maize in Nigeria using
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Time Series data covering the period of
1970-2005 was used for the Study. The data were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN),
International Financial Statistical (IFS) reports and National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The result also shows
maize production forecast for the year 2020 to be about 9952.72 tons with upper and lower limits 6479.8 and
13425.64 thousand tons respectively. The model also shows that the maize area would be 9229.74 thousand
hectares with lower and upper limit of 7087.67 and 11371.81 thousand hectares respectively by 2020. This
projection is important as it helps inform good policies with respect to relative production, price structure as
well as consumption of maize in the country. The conclusion from the study is that, total cropped area can be
increased in future, if land reclamation and conservation measures are adopted.
Key words: ARIMA, maize, Nigerian, production, trends, ,
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Cite this Reference:
M.A. Badmus and O.S. Ariyo, . Forecasting Cultivated Areas and Production of Maize in Nigerian using ARIMA Model. Asian Journal of Agricultural Sciences, (3): 171-176.
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ISSN (Online): 2041-3890
ISSN (Print): 2041-3882 |
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